We break down the development of quantum technology and how it could affect the crypto industry — and bitcoin in particular.
IBM has demonstrated “trusted quantum advantage“–a 70-logical-qubit computer performed a calculation beyond classical methods and provided statistical confirmation of the result’s accuracy. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna told CNBC that quantum computing will start impacting revenue in 2028–2029, and the technology could create $1 trillion in value by the late 2030s.
Hot topic: Strategy May Sell More Bitcoin to Pay Dividends as Cash Takes Priority
IBM’s experiment used a new error correction method to perform 2,415 logical two-qubit operations in 15 minutes, reducing the logical error rate to about one-tenth of the physical level. For bitcoin, that means the quantum threat is gradually approaching: more than 34 percent of BTC▲$77,666.00 supply is held in addresses with exposed public keys.
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How Quantum Computers Threaten Bitcoin and When to Expect a Crisis
Bitcoin (BTC) uses elliptic curve cryptography for digital signatures. Researchers estimate that breaking the network would require thousands of logical qubits on a fault-tolerant quantum computer–far beyond IBM’s 70-qubit demonstration. But progress is accelerating: in March 2026, Google Quantum AI cut its estimate of the qubits needed to break elliptic curve cryptography by roughly 20 times–to fewer than 500,000.
According to BIP-361, about 6.8 million BTC are held in vulnerable addresses. Technical solutions exist–developers merged BIP-360 into the proposals repository in February 2026–but BIP-361 remains contested. Bitcoin has no agreed-upon migration plan to post-quantum cryptography, unlike regulated financial institutions, where regulators can set deadlines.
Read more: Quantum Computing Threat to Bitcoin — Real or Hype?
Commercialization of Quantum Computing: IBM’s Forecast and Industry Reaction
IBM demonstrated the experiment with Qedma and Algorithmiq, describing it as proof that a quantum computer can solve certain computational problems more efficiently than classical systems and verify the result. The IBM system helped identify material behavior that researchers couldn’t observe through conventional computing–potential applications include batteries, new materials, fusion energy, and drug discovery.
In May 2026, IBM announced plans to build a dedicated quantum chip fabrication facility with $1 billion in support from the Commerce Department’s CHIPS program and another $1 billion in company investment. Krishna acknowledged that commercialization speed remains debatable due to high error rates, hardware complexity, and scaling challenges.
Institutional players have already begun responding to the quantum threat. Galaxy Digital launched a quantum readiness initiative for bitcoin on July 21, allocating up to $5 million in grants for developers. Coinbase created an Independent Quantum Advisory Council. Both are among the nine founding members of the Bitcoin Security Consortium, which, together with BlackRock, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Strategy, has committed $15 million.
Learn more: Quantum-Proof Bitcoin Without a Fork — Post-Quantum Transaction Model Proposal
