Bitcoin News

Bull-Bear Signal, Bitcoin ETF Inflows, Institutional Buys: What’s Driving BTC Price in May

Nana K.
12 May 2026 2 min read

The Bitcoin Foundation editorial team gathered opinions from key industry analysts on what to expect from bitcoin’s price in the near term.

Hot topic: BTC Price Prediction on May 12 — Bitcoin’s Rise Above $82,000 Is a “Bull Trap”

CryptoQuant: First Bullish Signal Since 2023

CryptoQuant has recorded an important technical signal: the Bull-Bear Cycle indicator has turned green for the first time since March 2023, signaling the start of an early bull market.

CryptoQuant Bitcoin (BTC) Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator. Source: CryptoQuant.
CryptoQuant Bitcoin (BTC$62,698.00) Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator. Source: CryptoQuant.

Historically, such transitions have often preceded strong recoveries. However, CryptoQuant warns that the signal does not guarantee a full bull run. In March 2022, a similar pattern emerged, but bitcoin (BTC) continued to fall. Analysts note that the current signal looks less confident due to signs of weakening demand.

“The probability slightly leans toward this being a local top rather than the start of a new bull market — unless price continues to rise and confirms the move,” CryptoQuant stated.

Read more: Bitcoin Bull Market Returns? Experts Forecast BTC Price Surge to $250K

Contents
  1. 1.Rochard: Current Correction Is the Mildest in History
  2. 2.What to Expect Next From BTC's Price?

Rochard: Current Correction Is the Mildest in History

Bitcoin Bond Company CEO Pierre Rochard believes that bitcoin’s fourth bear cycle is significantly different from previous ones. BTC currently sits approximately 36% below its all-time high of $126,000, whereas past cycles saw drawdowns of 77% to 85%.

In his view, the main factors are: 

  • Steady capital inflows through spot bitcoin ETFs, which have exceeded $59B since launch
  • Aggressive purchases by public companies, led by Strategy

What to Expect Next From BTC’s Price?

Analysts agree that the market is currently in a transitional phase. To confirm a full bull trend, bitcoin needs to firmly establish itself above $88,000 to $90,000 and show sustained demand growth. Otherwise, the risk of a return to the $70,000-75,000 range remains.

BTC Price Movement Over the Last 24 Hours, as of May 12, 2026. Source: CoinGecko.
BTC Price Movement Over the Last 24 Hours, as of May 12, 2026. Source: CoinGecko.

At the time of publication, BTC trades near $81,680.

Learn more: The Psychology of the Crypto Market Cycle: Understanding Why Markets Rise, Fall, and Repeat — A Complete Guide