Overnight on July 2-3, bitcoin finally broke out of its prolonged slump and tested the $62,000 level. We break down what sparked the BTC▲$61,888.00 price rally.
At the time of publication, bitcoin (BTC) trades at roughly $61,740, up almost 3% on the day.
Hot topic: Strategy’s Bitcoin Buying Machine May Be Losing Power, Bitwise Says
Bitcoin briefly hit $62,117 but faced resistance near $62K, reinforced by the 20-day EMA and Parabolic SAR. A break above that level would open the path to $66,200.
Still, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and whale activity could limit upside. If bitcoin fails to hold $60K, the next downside target is realized price around $53K.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index jumped to 21 points but remains in extreme fear territory–a level it has held for the entire past month.
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BTC Price Today July 3: Weak US Jobs Data and $450M Short Liquidations
Analysts attribute the rally primarily to US jobs data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported just 57,000 new jobs in June–nearly half the 113,000 forecast. April and May figures were revised downward by 74,000 jobs.
Investors read the data as a signal for potential monetary easing. That triggered a wave of short covering. According to Coinglass, about $450M in crypto shorts were liquidated over 24 hours.
Read more: How the CLARITY Act Could Reshape US Crypto Trading
Bitcoin ETF Outflows and Whale Activity: Why BTC Can’t Hold Above $62K
Institutional investors haven’t rushed to support the bounce. On Wednesday, spot bitcoin ETFs posted $294M in net outflows, even with the price rise. June was a record month for ETF withdrawals at $4.5B. The outflow streak was broken on July 2 with a $221.7M inflow.
CryptoQuant analysts flagged warning signs on exchanges. BTC inflows to exchanges exceeded 50,000 coins per day, Ethereum (ETH) inflows hit 1.25M, and altcoin deposits reached a two-month high. Average deposit size rose from 1 BTC to 2 BTC, pointing to large holder activity rather than retail. Similar spikes have preceded sharp moves, including June’s drop to $58,000.
Read more: BlackRock vs Fidelity — Who Controls the Future of Bitcoin ETFs?
Bitcoin Price Forecast for July: $53K to $70K — What Analysts Say
Forecasts remain cautious. Stock-to-flow model creator PlanB noted that all previous bear market lows were below realized price. He allowed for further downside to that level.
Tiger Research, by contrast, said the market is likely in the final stage of the bear cycle. Standard Chartered maintains its $100,000 BTC and $4,000 ETH year-end targets.
Trader Merlijn The Trader sees a target of $63K based on a bullish wedge breakout. Daan Crypto Trades noted the return above $59,800, which sets the stage for a move to $67K if support holds.
Learn more: Top July 2026 Crypto Updates: Crypto Market at a Breaking Point — Is Another Crash Coming?
