Long-term holders are selling at a loss less aggressively, but analysts say the market still lacks confirmation that a Bitcoin bottom is in.
Glassnode, a blockchain analytics firm, said in its latest Week On-Chain report that losses realized by long-term Bitcoin holders peaked two weeks ago and have since started falling, though the market still lacks the spot buying needed to confirm a bottom.
The shift suggests that the wave of capitulation responsible for much of this year’s selling pressure is beginning to lose strength. The firm wrote:
“For the first time this cycle, the metric that defines the bottoming process is falling instead of rising. The sellers who made this bear market are, at the margin, running out.”
Still, one decline doesn’t prove that selling is exhausted as Glassnode warns that another market shock could force long-term holders to resume selling at a loss.
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Where Bitcoin is Headed
There’s been an accumulation of buyers, both retail and institutional, around the lower levels in June, according to the analysts. However, buying has cooled off since then, and now the question is where to look for new sources of demand, Glassnode noted.
- As of press time, Bitcoin remains above the realized price, the average price paid for all coins in circulation and a level that often acts as support during bear markets.
But it’s still below the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000, which represents the average entry price of recent buyers. Glassnode expects strong selling pressure as Bitcoin approaches that level:
“The first meeting with that level will likely draw a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole.”
As the firm concluded, Bitcoin’s bottom may be taking shape, but confirmation still requires strong spot buying that pushes the price above the short-term holder cost basis and keeps it there.
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