Bitcoin price can still fall below $53,000 before climbing to $500,000 during the current halving cycle, according to PlanB.
PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, which values Bitcoin based on its scarcity, said in a Wednesday, July 15, post on X that the cryptocurrency may still fall below $53,000 before reversing into a new rally and setting a cycle high above its October 2025 record.
In the X post, PlanB said BTC▲$62,630.00 can briefly fall below its realized price, an on-chain measure of the average price at which the cryptocurrency’s supply last moved. He added:
“Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO.”
Glassnode, a blockchain analytics company, put Bitcoin’s realized price at roughly $53,000. When Bitcoin trades below that level, the average holder is sitting on an unrealized loss.
Despite acknowledging the risk of another decline, PlanB said Bitcoin’s October 2025 high of around $126,000 didn’t mark the cycle top, arguing that his Stock-to-Flow model still points to $500,000, within a range of $250,000 to $1 million, between 2026 and 2028.
Read also: BTC Price Hits Three-Week High Above $65,000 — What Drove Bitcoin on July 15
PlanB Says the Four-Year Cycle May Look Different
PlanB created the stock-to-flow model, which values Bitcoin based on its existing supply and the number of new coins produced each year.
But because Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio rises after each halving, some questioned how the cryptocurrency could peak between 2026 and 2028 when its historical four-year pattern would point to a bear-market bottom in 2026 and the next top closer to 2029.
PlanB argues that Bitcoin’s cycles should be viewed through halvings rather than the precise timing of market tops and bottoms:
“IMO the cyclical nature of bitcoin is more about halving cycles. Every halving cycle BTC finds a new (ave) level.”
He added that the timing of individual tops and bottoms mattered less because the Stock-to-Flow model doesn’t predict them, arguing that a peak between 2026 and 2028 would cause “max pain” by catching traders positioned for a bear market off guard.
Critics Question the Model’s Track Record
The debate then shifted to whether Stock-to-Flow still works, with some users arguing that its forecasts had missed and appeared to have been revised.
But PlanB denied changing the model, saying it had projected an average Bitcoin price of $55,000, within a $25,000 to $100,000 range, for 2020 to 2024, while the actual average was about $34,000.
Read more: Bitcoin Reclaims $65K: What’s Next for the Crypto Market in the Second Half of July?
