Bitcoin crash below $27,000 won’t kill Strategy, though Michael Saylor’s company would still have to sell over 115,000 BTC▼$59,396.00, an analyst says.
Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin giant Strategy would survive even if BTC price crashed 55% and forced the company to sell its crypto holdings after burning through cash, according to a stress test by market commentator Adam Livingston.
In an X post on Thursday, Livingston laid out a three-year stress test in which Bitcoin drops 55%, Strategy’s mNAV falls below 0.50x, capital markets close, cash runs out and the company starts selling BTC to cover senior obligations.
Read also: Strategy Buys 520 Bitcoin in Smallest 2026 Purchase So Far
In his stress test, the initial position of Strategy starts at about 847,360 BTC and $1.4 billion cash. Bitcoin under under that scenario drops below $27,000 in month six, almost wiping out the residual value for common stockholders because fixed obligations almost take up the whole stack on paper.
As Livingston argues, the exposure of common equity Bitcoin goes down from 496,000 BTC to 28,000 BTC in the most unfavorable circumstances, while his per-share exposure metric goes down by more than 94%.
Strategy Still Keeps Most of Its BTC
From this point on, Strategy has zero new purchases of Bitcoin, no issuance of common stock and is facing monthly obligations over $167 million. By month nine, cash dries up and Strategy starts selling off BTC to fund the senior stack, the analyst says.
Across the full three-year period, Livingston’s stress test has Strategy selling around 115,727 BTC. But even after those sales, the company still ends with more than 731,635 BTC.
In the final state, Bitcoin recovers to around $48,500, MSTR trades at about $51.8, mNAV stands at 1.40x and common equity BTC rises back to 274,093 BTC.
As Livingston argues, the real risk isn’t “instant bankruptcy,” but pressure from CEBE compression, as fixed-dollar senior claims that temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms during a deep drawdown.
Read more: Strategy STRC Slump Puts Saylor Bitcoin Buying Under Scrutiny
