Strategy STRC can recover only if the company rebuilds its U.S. dollar reserve and slows Bitcoin buying, CryptoQuant said.
Strategy’s STRC, a dividend-paying preferred stock tied to Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin company, fell far below its $100 par value as blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant said the company’s cash coverage for dividends dropped to a record low.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, wrote in an X post that some investors blamed STRC’s fall below $100 on leveraged positions being liquidated. Although that may have played a role, Moreno thinks the larger driver was weaker fundamentals at Strategy:
“While this may be true to some extent, we believe the correction was largely driven by a deterioration in Strategy’s fundamentals, as STRC’s dividend cash coverage fell to its lowest level on record.”
According to CryptoQuant, Strategy’s STRC fell to $82.50 last week, a record 17.5% below its $100 par value. The drop came as Bitcoin’s bear-market correction also hit at the same time as Strategy’s cash reserve was being depleted.
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Cash Coverage Falls to 14 Months
CryptoQuant said Strategy’s U.S. dollar cash reserve has fallen 38% since the start of 2026, while annualized dividend obligations have almost quadrupled to $1.2 billion, pushing dividend coverage down from more than seven years to just 14 months.
In a research report, CryptoQuant said rebuilding the cash reserve to about $2.8 billion, enough for 24 months of coverage, is needed before STRC can move back toward $100.
The warning came shortly after Strategy bought 520 BTC for about $35 million, its smallest Bitcoin purchase so far in 2026. The same filing showed Strategy raised its U.S. dollar reserve by $300 million to $1.4 billion.
Pause Bitcoin Buys, CryptoQuant Says
CryptoQuant noted that selling BTC to support STRC would probably hurt shareholders because Strategy is sitting on a $10.6 billion unrealized loss, adding further that all BTC bought in 2024, 2025 and 2026 is now underwater.
Now, Moreno says, Strategy’s priority “should be to pause Bitcoin purchases and rebuild its cash reserve,” with CryptoQuant pointing out in the report that the company “should develop a systematic, fundamental-driven approach to Bitcoin purchase timing rather than buying whenever capital is available.”
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