Although Bitcoin price is still far from seven figures, VanEck says the asset’s long-term adoption curve makes $1 million its base case.
A New York-based asset manager with nearly $200 billion in assets under management is putting Bitcoin‘s numbers back into the market conversation.
The firm’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, said in a CNBC interview on May 6 that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within roughly five years. He said:
“Bitcoin going up for us is the base case. We think this asset is going to reach $1 million over the next several years. But it’s a very cyclical asset.”
When asked about the specific timeframe, Sigel said it could take “half a decade.” He tied that view to younger investors’ willingness to allocate to Bitcoin, comparing it with the video game industry, where “30 years ago it was just kids playing video games, now Elon Musk is playing video games, people don’t quit.”
Read also: In 10 Years, Bitcoin Will Become a Global Reserve Asset — Strategy CEO
Bitcoin Price Needs a Massive Move
Bitcoin is still far away from the $1 million mark. It’s also down about 37% from its all-time high of $126,080, reached in October 2025, according to CoinGecko data.
The asset manager has already laid out a longer-term version of this view. In a January research note, VanEck said its base case sees Bitcoin reaching $2.9 million by 2050, implying a 15% compound annual growth rate from its Dec. 31, 2025 baseline price of about $88,000.
VanEck also says its model implies a 15% compound annual growth rate through 2050. Its bear case is $130,000, while its bull case reaches $53.4 million, though the firm itself says these are simulations and not a guarantee of future returns.
Read more: Bitcoin Optimism Hits 4-Month High. Here’s Why That’s a Bad Sign
