The US released March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which came in slightly below market expectations.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, versus a forecast of 3.4%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, came in at 2.6% against a consensus of 2.7%.
Related: Bitcoin April 10—BTC Attempts to Hold Above $70,000 Amid ETF Inflows
However, gasoline prices showed a historic surge — up 21.2% month-over-month, the largest rise since 1967. The energy index rose 10.9%, the highest since 2005.
The US and Israeli military operation against Iran in March caused oil prices to spike, peaking above $115 per barrel.
Market Reaction
Following the data release, bitcoin (BTC) quickly climbed above $72,000 and tested the $73,000 level. At the time of publication, BTC▲$63,648.00 traded around $73,086, showing a 2.5% gain over 24 hours.
Related: Bhutan Sells Approximately 70% of Its Bitcoin Reserves
However, traders should exercise caution. Sharp gains can quickly reverse into profit-taking on news headlines, leading to a correction.
Analysts note that soft core inflation signaled to the market that the energy shock has not yet spread to other economic sectors. This temporarily eased concerns about tighter Fed policy.
Despite the positive reaction, pressure on bitcoin persists. Geopolitical tensions around Iran continue to impact energy prices, and macroeconomic uncertainty limits sustained growth.
Related: What Is a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve?
Shift in Fed Rate Expectations
Geopolitical tensions forced investors to dramatically revise Fed rate forecasts. The market initially priced in one or more rate cuts, then later priced in hikes. Participants now expect rates to hold steady in April and June.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 98.4% probability that the Fed will keep rates at 3.50-3.75% at the April 29 meeting. Only 1.6% of market participants expect a hike. Meanwhile, traders have increased bets on a single Fed rate cut in 2026.
At its March meeting, the Fed raised its own 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%. Seven of 19 committee members now expect no rate cuts this year. This backdrop makes today’s contained core inflation reading particularly significant — it runs counter to the narrative of renewed price acceleration.
Related: Bitcoin vs Gold—Which Is the Better Store of Value?
