In just one week, the US Congress introduced several bipartisan bills aimed at strict regulation and partial bans on prediction markets.
The main initiative is the PREDICT Act. It prohibits high-ranking officials from trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket on political events and government decisions.
Representative Adrian Smith (R-NE) and Representative Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) introduced the bill on March 25, 2026. The ban applies to members of Congress, their spouses and minor children, the president, vice president, political appointees, senior executive branch officials, high-ranking military officers, and judges.
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Details of the PREDICT Act
The bill’s authors note that the growing popularity of prediction markets has increased the risk of insider trading. Nikki Budzinski stated that Americans are tired of politicians or their associates profiting from access to confidential information.
Violators face a fine of 10 percent of the transaction amount. They must also forfeit all profits to the US Treasury. The law prohibits paying such penalties from campaign funds, office budgets, or government salaries.
Other Congressional Initiatives
Lawmakers have introduced several additional bills in recent weeks:
- Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act (Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis) — prohibits CFTC-regulated platforms from offering contracts resembling sports betting or casino games.
- STOP Corrupt Bets Act (Senator Jeff Merkley and Representative Jamie Raskin, endorsed by Senator Elizabeth Warren) — imposes a full ban on contracts related to elections, sports, government decisions, and military operations.
- DEATH BETS Act (Senator Adam Schiff and Representative Mike Levin) — prohibits contracts on war, terrorism, assassinations, and the death of individuals.
- Earlier bills included the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act (Senator Richard Blumenthal) to combat fraud and the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets (Representative Ritchie Torres).
How Are Prediction Markets Responding to Pressure?
Kalshi and Polymarket have introduced additional rules. These include blocking accounts of politicians, athletes, and individuals who could influence event outcomes. The platforms also ban trading using stolen or insider information.
The legislative push follows suspicious trading activity around major events, including military operations and political decisions.
The fate of these initiatives will depend on congressional review. Industry representatives warn that strict bans could drive users to unregulated offshore platforms.
