BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is betting that HYPE▼$62.02 will outperform Solana through year end, testing Hyperliquid’s rally against SOL▼$69.19.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is betting on X that HYPE will outperform SOL through year end after Hyperliquid’s token rallied past Dogecoin to enter the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap.
The BitMEX co-founder challenged Kyle Samani, managing partner at Multicoin Capital and a long-time Solana backer, to a $100,000 charity bet that HYPE would beat any current top-10 crypto in dollar terms from now until the end of the year.
Samani accepted the challenge with SOL as his pick. Hayes then proposed using Bybit prices for HYPE/USDT▼$0.9989 and SO/LUSDT from June 2 to on Jan. 1, 2027.
HYPE has already crushed SOL so far this year. According to Bitcoin Foundation’s price tracking page, HYPE is up roughly 190% so far in 2026, after climbing from around $24 at the start of the year to above $70.
But SOL has moved the other way as Solana started the year around $127 and now trades near $81 to $82, putting it down about 35% in 2026.
Read also: HYPE Hits All-Time High as Bitcoin Bleeds — Arthur Hayes’ “Holy Trinity” Trade Is Printing Money
HYPE Price Bet Depends On SOL’s Rebound
The bet doesn’t use year-to-date performance though, as it resets the race from June 2, meaning HYPE’s earlier gains don’t count so that makes the wager cleaner and riskier for Hayes.
HYPE has momentum, but it’s also trading in price discovery near record highs after a fast run, while SOL is down sharply this year, giving it more room to rebound if risk appetite improves or Solana-specific flows return.
If HYPE reaches $100 by year end, it would be up about 37%, so SOL would need to stay below roughly $111 for HYPE to win. But if SOL rebounds to $120, HYPE would need to trade near $108 to beat it. If SOL returns to $150, HYPE would need to reach roughly $135.
As Bitcoin Foundation reported earlier, traders on Polymarket are putting the odds of HYPE hitting $100 in 2026 at about 57%, with about $304,000 in active betting volume tied to that market.
Read more: SOL Price Analysis May 2026: Is Solana Ready for a Rally to $100?
