The first prediction market exchange-traded funds allowing investors to bet on presidential and midterm election results will begin trading in the US on May 5.
The first exchange-traded funds allowing investors to bet on presidential and midterm election results will begin trading in the US on May 5, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
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New York-based Roundhill is the issuer. The lineup includes six funds:
- RPM Democratic President ETF and RPM Republican President ETF—bets on the winner of the 2028 presidential election
- RPM Democratic Senate ETF and RPM Republican Senate ETF
- RPM Democratic House ETF and RPM Republican House ETF—bets on control of the Senate and House of Representatives in the November 2026 elections
Each fund offers significant capital appreciation if the target party wins and near-total loss of capital if it loses.
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“Looks like we are going to see prediction markets ETFs launch next week,” Seyffart wrote.
His colleague Eric Balchunas called the idea “potentially groundbreaking” and added:
“If this goes through, wow, opens up huge door to all kinds of stuff.”
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The initiative follows explosive growth in prediction market platforms. In March 2026, Polymarket and Kalshi together processed a record $23.6 to $24.3B in trading volume.
President Donald Trump recently stated that the US “cannot stay on the sidelines” of prediction markets. His son, Donald Trump Jr., has invested in Polymarket, joined its advisory board, and also advises Kalshi. Trump Media plans to launch its own prediction platform on Truth Social in partnership with Crypto.com.
Bloomberg analysts expect similar products from Bitwise and Granite Shares in the near future. This could open a new wave of “financialization of everything” through the ETF wrapper.
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