Meta is entering the prediction market space with a new app called Arena, leveraging its massive user base of 3.56B daily active users. We break down how the new offering differs from Polymarket and Kalshi and what else to know about Arena.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has instructed his development team to create a mobile prediction market app under the codename Arena, according to The New York Times, citing informed employees.
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The app will operate independently of Facebook and Instagram and allow users to make predictions on various events. The key difference from competitors: bets will be placed using points rather than real money, though Meta hasn’t ruled out a future transition to cash settlements. The project is described as experimental but high-priority.
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Will Meta Have an Easy Time Entering the Prediction Market With Arena?
The company is entering the segment relatively late, with competition already fierce and clear leaders–Polymarket and Kalshi–dominating the space.
Meanwhile, traditional bookmakers, crypto exchanges, and Trump Media & Technology Group have either launched or are planning to launch their own platforms.
However, Meta has a unique advantage: access to a billion-plus user base that it can funnel into the new app. As of June 2026, Meta’s daily active users exceed 3.56B.
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Regulatory Risks for Meta’s Prediction Platform
Meta’s plans have already drawn criticism in Congress. Senator Richard Blumenthal wrote on social media:
“Meta copied slot machines to addict kids to Instagram. Now Zuckerberg is turning his company into a prediction market.”
He also called for support for two of his bills–the Kids Online Safety Act and the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act–aimed at consumer protection and combating insider trading.
Prediction markets themselves are under heavy regulatory pressure. In April, federal prosecutors in New York charged a US special forces member with using classified information to bet on an operation to capture Venezuela’s president. The CFTC has also been downsized under the Trump administration, adding to the challenges of overseeing a fast-growing sector.
Read more: What Is Polymarket? The Beginner’s Guide to the Prediction Market Everyone Is Talking About in 2026
Meta’s Track Record: From Forecast to Horizon — Failed Experiments in Adjacent Spaces
This isn’t Meta’s first prediction market experiment. In 2020, it launched Forecast, which shut down in 2022. But the landscape has changed since then–prediction markets have gone mainstream. Polymarket and Kalshi attracted $50B in online bets in 2025, and that figure has already surpassed $130B in 2026. Arena could dramatically shift the balance of power in the space.
Meta has also been active in digital assets. In 2019, it announced the Libra stablecoin, which faced stiff regulatory resistance and was shut down. Meta invested $80B in the metaverse but has stopped creating new VR experiences for Horizon Worlds this year. Instagram also discontinued NFT support a year after launch.
Still, Meta continues experimenting with crypto infrastructure. In April, it began paying content creators in USDC on Facebook in Colombia and the Philippines.
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