Analysts at QCP Capital believe the crypto market and its leader, bitcoin, will remain sluggish until certain signals emerge.
Analysts at Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital expect bitcoin to continue trading in a narrow range in the near term. Without significant news on tariffs or a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, the market will remain in a mode of muted fluctuations.
Hot topic: BitMEX Co-Founder Cuts Bitcoin Price Forecast From $500K to $125K
At the time of publication, bitcoin trades at nearly $77,000. Its price has fallen 1.5% over the past 24 hours.
Contents
Why Did Bitcoin Fall?
Bitcoin (BTC) broke below the $78K level after the May 15 expiration of options in the BlackRock IBIT exchange-traded fund, which had a notional value exceeding $4B. Prior to that, dealers holding long gamma positions had mechanically supported the price in a narrow range around $80K. After the expiration, this support vanished, contributing to the decline.
The macroeconomic backdrop also added pressure. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes reached 4.62%, and 30-year yields hit 5.14%. The USD/JPY exchange rate approached 160, where the risk of Japanese currency intervention and a reversal of the yen carry trade increases.
These factors traditionally reduce global dollar liquidity and negatively impact risk assets.
Read more: Bitcoin ETF Flows May 2026 — $1.25B Outflows Hit Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs This Week
Trade Negotiations and Fed Policy
Markets were disappointed by the outcome of the Trump-Xi summit. No concrete agreements were announced on tariff reductions for China or concessions on rare earth metals for the United States.
Amid rising oil prices and hot inflation data, market participants have increased the probability of Fed policy tightening. Futures now price in a 50% to 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike by January 2027.
What to Expect From BTC’s Price in the Near Term
QCP Capital notes that the spike in implied volatility following the break below $78K proved short-lived. Even the upcoming Nvidia earnings report on May 20 did not lead to sustained volatility growth.
In the absence of strong catalysts, analysts expect the return of call option sellers, who could once again “pin” the price within a range.
Experts recommend a covered call writing strategy to capture premium in a low-directional activity environment.
Learn more: Top Crypto Deals of 2026 That Shook the Market — Biggest Moves You Need to Know
