The latest break in Bitcoin price echoes early signals seen before the 2018 and 2022 drawdowns, though losses remain smaller so far.
Bitcoin price is flashing a signal that has historically appeared early in deeper downturns, new data shows. In an X post on April 16, CryptoVizArt, a lead research analyst at Glassnode, pointed to the shift using the True Market Mean, a metric which tracks the average price active Bitcoin investors paid for their coins.
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That measure filters out lost or inactive BTC▼$62,918.00 and focuses on holders still trading. When Bitcoin trades below it, the average active investor is effectively in the red.
That’s where the market appears to be now. Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s been below this level for roughly 75 days, putting the current move in the early phase compared with previous cycles.
History suggests these periods tend to take time. Prior bear markets stretched over hundreds of days, with declines lasting roughly 260 to more than 400 days. In both 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin spent months below similar cost-basis levels before eventually stabilizing, with final bottoms forming much later in the cycle.
Bitcoin Price Drop Remains Milder
What stands out this time is the scale. The current drawdown has reached around 20% at its worst, far smaller than the deeper losses seen in prior cycles. As CryptoVizArt notes, the move is “tracking above the historical mean — a milder path than what past bears delivered at this stage.”
So far, the depth of the move looks relatively contained. However, the timing still lines up with earlier downturns, suggesting the cycle may not be fully developed yet. As the analyst explained, “75 days is still early” compared with past episodes that stretched for months.
On-chain data shows pressure is already building. Roughly 44% of Bitcoin supply is now held at a loss, while trading activity remains subdued.
A recovery would likely require Bitcoin to reclaim the True Market Mean, the level CryptoVizArt described as the “true breakeven level for participants still engaged in the market.” Until then, the average active Bitcoin holder remains underwater.
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