If this cycle is similar to prior bear cycles, Bitcoin may be in an accumulation phase from September to November, said asset manager VanEck. Eight of the 12 capitulation indicators the firm tracks were still active as of August 12, marking 10 months since Bitcoin peaked in October 2025.
However, VanEck explained that past returns should not be used to forecast prices and noted that their figure for Bitcoin exposure found forward returns from overlapping sets of relatively few observations.
Most indicators in its capitulation framework declare sell conditions when their values reach a very high historical percentile, and price drawdowns are declared upon a drop of at least 35% from a Bitcoin price local maximum. Around the time of this analysis, BTC▲$62,630.00 was around 49% below its overall October all-time high, although this was only the 35th percentile historically.
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The same threshold in percentiles would lead to seven signals. VanEck kept the drawdown rule separate, with institutional ownership and demand making the drawdown for ETPs holding spot Bitcoin likely shallower than bear cycles in prior years, which were 78% to 94% losses.
However, 8-12 such capitulation signals in the past return 12.8% on average over the next 90 days versus 15.2% for all periods combined. Subsequently, the average amount over the past 180 days was 32%, below the baseline of 36.3%.
The outperformance emerges in only the one-year period. Acknowledging that the 115 observation days behind the result overlap heavily and represent few independent episodes, VanEck said the framework therefore identifies a late-cycle stress better than any precise market bottom or recovery date.
More positively, fund flows also tell a different story. US spot Bitcoin ETPs received roughly $663 million in new investments over the 30-day measurement period, negating part of the $2.4 billion in outflows from the prior month.
After an outflow of $385.2 million in the week ending August 14, inflows turned positive with $297.5 million on August 17 and $189.3 million on August 18.
Long-term holders can be a counterbalance, and Bitcoin held longer than one year decreased by 356,534 BTC over the last 30 days to 11.84 million BTC (59.1% of circulating supply). All age cohorts with durations longer than one year decreased in size, with the one-to-two-year cohort the largest loser at 156,000 BTC.
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VanEck said these older coins could have been moved for wallet security rather than to cash out, but it was difficult to verify the reason. Bitcoin traded at around $64,250 on 19 August, which was lower than its 200-day moving average.
If stronger spot demand and long-term holdings do not give way during September to November, this will make an accumulation phase more likely, while distribution or fund outflows would be weighed against this.
