Bitcoin mining machine economics are getting tighter as hashprice near $29 per PH/s/day is at or below breakeven for many crypto miners.
Bitcoin miners are getting squeezed from both sides as weaker Bitcoin price cuts revenue while network conditions prepare to adjust lower.
Crypto management firm Galaxy Research said in a Thursday post on X that Bitcoin is on track for its 11th largest downward mining difficulty adjustment on Saturday, June 13, as the BTC▲$63,333.00/USD slide cuts Bitcoin miner revenue.
According to Galaxy Digital, the estimated reset is projected to be about 10.3%, as shown on its table above. The mining difficulty adjustment is an automatic adjustment that occurs every 2,016 blocks and aims to maintain block time close to 10 minutes.
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Top Bitcoin Difficulty Drops Came During Mining Shocks
The largest drop so far came on July 3, 2021, when difficulty fell nearly 28% after China’s Bitcoin mining ban forced miners out of the country.
The second-biggest difficulty drop occurred on October 31, 2011, during the Bitcoin bear market period post-bubble.
On November 3, 2020, the third-biggest decrease happened with a 16% decrease after the Sichuan Province in China went into the dry season and became unattractive due to reduced cheap hydroelectricity, making Bitcoin miners switch off their mining machines.
The upcoming cut would sit near two past stress events. Difficulty fell 11.1% on Feb. 7, 2026, after a price slump and storm curtailments, while a 9.5% drop on Dec. 18, 2018, came as miner capitulation continued.
Miner Stress Still Far From Capitulation
Hashrate Index, a Bitcoin mining data platform, pointed out in a recent research paper that Bitcoin fell 14% over the week, while USD hashprice, miner revenue per unit of computing power, dropped 11.3% to around $29 per PH/s/day.
Network hash rate fell 13.6%, and the seven-day average fell to 874 EH/s from 1,011 EH/s. Hashrate Index estimates the upcoming adjustment at about 10.6% and stated that a hash price near $29 is near the breakeven point for many Bitcoin miners.
Adler AM, a Bitcoin market research newsletter by on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., added that miners are entering a “stress zone,” with the Puell Multiple 30-day average falling to 0.74. That shows pressure, but it’s still above the 0.45 level seen at the 2022 bottom and 0.33 in December 2018.
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