Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen pushed back on claims that Bitcoin four year cycle is over, implying the current downturn is nothing new.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of the crypto research platform Into The Cryptoverse, said Bitcoin‘s four-year cycle “is not dead,” disagreeing with claims that exchange-traded funds and institutions have disrupted the established pattern of Bitcoin’s market behavior.
In his May 25 thread on X, Cohen wrote that Bitcoin “topped when it always topped,” within roughly one week when measured from the market-cycle low to the high. Per Cohen, if the latest peak of Bitcoin still happened within the framework of the usual time pattern, the bottom can also come at an expected time.
But as Cowen claims, Bitcoin’s return on investment from the last peak is “holding up better then prior cycles,” though still shows similar behavior, implying that the shape and timing still look familiar.
- The four-year cycle is Bitcoin’s long-running market pattern, tied loosely to halvings, liquidity and investor psychology.
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“Plenty of Evidence”
Moreover, the analyst cited bear market rallies, which are periods of upward price movement in the context of a downtrend. In previous bear markets, such rallies have exceeded 20 weeks before a new local minimum price, Cohen argued, adding that the present consolidation period is just 16 weeks old.
Another part of his argument is Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average, a widely watched trend line that tracks the average closing price over roughly 200 days. Cowen said Bitcoin has historically been rejected around that level in bear markets, and pointed out that that “exactly” happened again.
Cowen left room for being wrong, noting that his views “could be wrong,” but still noting there’s “plenty of evidence” that the four-year cycle remains intact and that traders may once again have assumed “this time was different” too early.
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at around $76,500, down 0.8% on the day, per CoinGecko data.
Read more: Bitcoin Price Recovers, But Analyst Still Sees Risk of Drop Into $60Ks
