The World Cup has revived activity on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. But it’s not all about wins and positive stories.
In the first ten days of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, an anonymous trader under the handle coldsway lost $11.6M on Polymarket bets. The trader placed 15 bets, winning only four. The biggest loss came from a $4.9M bet that Morocco would not win their match on July 4–that prediction turned out wrong.
Separately, Coinbase faced criticism after an AI-generated notification falsely announced Norway’s victory over Brazil before the match had even started.
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Record Betting Losses: Cold Math vs. World Cup Upsets
Polymarket data shows coldsway earned $4.2M on four winning bets but lost $15.86M on the other 11 positions. Large losses came from bets against Canada, as well as losing positions on Portugal, Belgium, and Spain. Winning trades were small and counterintuitive: a draw bet on Australia-Egypt brought $1.1M, as did a bet on Ghana against Colombia.
Coldsway isn’t the tournament’s only big loser. Trader FlickRaw lost about $4.2M in under 24 hours in mid-June. First, he bet $2.7M on the Netherlands to beat Japan–that bet failed after a late Japanese goal sealed a 2:2 draw. The next day, he risked $1.5M on Belgium against Egypt–another draw.
Another shocking result cost bettors on Spain about $1M when Cape Verde held the European champions to a 0:0 draw. World Cup 2026 markets have drawn billions in volume, and heavy bets on favorites have repeatedly failed when underdogs secured draws or upset wins.
Read more: Kalshi and Polymarket Volume Surges 75% to $44.8B in June — FIFA World Cup Drove $832M in Bets
Coinbase Caught in AI Scandal: False Match Notification Before Kickoff
Coinbase found itself at the center of a scandal after its app sent a notification that Norway had beaten Brazil 3:2 in a World Cup playoff match. The problem? The game hadn’t started yet–the match at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey was delayed due to weather. The notification was AI-generated: the algorithm “invented” the result, crediting striker Erling Haaland with two goals.
Social media users flooded the platform with screenshots, accusing the crypto exchange of irresponsibility. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded quickly:
Learn more: FIFA World Cup Crypto Scams Started Before 2026 Tournament, Data Shows
