Bitcoin price remains stuck in a low-$60,000s range due to hawkish Fed signals, weaker flows and unresolved Iran talks.
Bitcoin‘s next step is getting delayed by the same combination of macro and market pressures that have been keeping traders on edge, with Wintermute and QCP Capital analysts citing the Fed, Iran deal discussions, lack of flow, and this week’s PCE figures as the hurdles to be cleared for any potential breakout.
Bitcoin moved up close to the $67,000 mark last week, fueled by hopes of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
But then it quickly lost traction after the Fed turned a little hawkish on rates, moving down to below $62,000 after the talks collapsed, crypto market making firm Wintermute wrote in an X post.
The move also flushed leverage as Wintermute says the weekend selloff triggered about $600 million in long liquidations, compared with less than $90 million in short liquidations.
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Fed Pressure Builds
But the bigger issue is still the Fed. Per Wintermute, the latest decision removed the easing bias, shifted the 2026 dot plot from an implied cut to an implied hike and pushed December hike odds to about 77% from about 24% a month earlier.
For crypto, that makes the flow setup harder since liquidity needs to come through exchange-traded funds, stablecoins and crypto treasury companies, but a Fed leaning toward tighter policy works against those channels. Wintermute wrote:
“Nothing here changes the flow thesis we’ve been running. The funnels aren’t turning. This is a market stabilizing beneath the surface on lighter positioning and cleaner leverage, not one finding new buyers.”
Analysts at crypto trading firm QCP Capital noted in their market overview that Bitcoin will probably need a better combination of catalysts in order to break out. The next catalyst is Thursday’s PCE inflation report, the favorite gauge for the Fed.
- A stronger inflation report could lift rate-hike bets, but a softer one would likely help crypto and other risk assets.
Quarter-end flows could add more volatility as QCP Capital cited JPMorgan’s estimate that institutions may sell as much as $165 billion of equities and buy a similar amount of bonds by the end of the quarter.
For now, QCP Capital says crypto volatility remains broadly unchanged, suggesting the market still expects range trading unless crypto-specific catalysts line up together.
Read more: Bitcoin Price Waits for New Catalyst as Momentum Cools, Analysts Say
