Coinbase’s Quantum Advisory Council has published a report assessing the scale of the future threat to bitcoin. The clock is ticking.
Old P2PK addresses, which use direct signatures without hashing, expose about 1.7 million BTC▲$63,905.00 to risk—including coins attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto. Factor in address reuse of other types, and the total vulnerable bitcoin could reach 7M.
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The council is urging the community to start technical preparations for post-quantum migration now. Don’t wait for consensus on what to do with “abandoned” coins.
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Three Ways to Save Your Bitcoin
The council outlined three approaches for assets that haven’t been moved to quantum-safe addresses before the deadline.
Approach 1: Burn or freeze after a set deadline. Supporters argue that once cryptography is broken, the owner no longer has valid proof of ownership. Leaving vulnerable coins in circulation creates a risk of market manipulation.
Approach 2: Do nothing—leave the choice to users. Forced burning violates property rights and goes against bitcoin’s core principles.
Approach 3: Intermediate measures. Options include limiting how many coins can be moved from old addresses in a single block, using ZK-proofs to prove ownership without revealing keys, or creating pre-signed protected transfer commitments.
The council noted that these proposals are compatible and could be adopted together.
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Why Preparation Is Needed Now, Not in 2030
The widely cited target for a “cryptographically relevant quantum computer” is 2030. But Coinbase’s council insists the community should start preparing without waiting for a precise threat timeline. The technical work of adding post-quantum signatures to blockchains doesn’t depend on a decision about abandoned coins.
Bitcoin Core developers have already proposed BIP-361, which would phase out legacy signatures and ban sending funds to vulnerable addresses.
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What Crypto KOLs Think About the Quantum Threat
Venture investor Tim Draper says fears about a quantum threat to bitcoin are overblown. In his view, traditional financial institutions run on legacy infrastructure that’s easier to compromise. Even if someone attacked the bitcoin network, full node operators could roll back to the last safe block—banks don’t have that option.
BIP-361 co-author Jameson Lopp disagrees. He says banks could upgrade to defend against quantum threats “orders of magnitude faster” than bitcoin, because any protocol change in a decentralized network requires broad consensus. He puts the timeline for bitcoin’s full transition at five to ten years.
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