This is the first time in eight months that Polymarket’s activity and trading volume have declined.
In April, Polymarket’s trading volume fell 8.9% to $10.2B. This is the first time since August 2025. Meanwhile, rival Kalshi grew its volume by 13% to $14.8B and took the top spot.
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Prediction Markets Hit Records
Total trading volume across all prediction platforms rose 12.4% to $29.8B. The sector continues to expand due to interest in political, economic, and crypto events.
Kalshi is now the clear leader, while Polymarket is losing market share. New players such as Prophet and MoonPay are also actively growing their presence.
Analysts note that competition in the segment is intensifying, and regulatory risks could slow Polymarket’s growth in the US. At the same time, the overall prediction market continues to expand due to broad public interest.
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Polymarket vs. Regulators
One reason for Polymarket’s struggles is its attempt to re-enter the US market. It left the US in 2022, but in December 2025, it launched a separate app for American users.
However, the US app is completely isolated from the global liquidity of the main platform. This reduces its appeal to traders.
Additional pressure is coming from regulators. In March, Senator Elizabeth Warren and more than 40 other members of Congress sent a letter to the CFTC demanding a ban on insider trading for government officials.
In April, the state of Wisconsin filed lawsuits against Polymarket, Kalshi, and other platforms, accusing them of violating sports betting laws.
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