Binance’s US arm plans to file for a Designated Contract Market license with the CFTC to launch a regulated event contract platform.
Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory announced the company’s intention to launch its own prediction market at the Rare Evo conference. A DCM license would allow Binance.US to offer clients event contracts–binary yes/no futures.
Hot topic: Bitcoin Treasury Hyperscale Sells 9% of Its BTC Despite Indefinite Hold Pledge
According to Gregory, the application will be filed in August 2026. It’s part of a broader strategy to revive the exchange, including fee reductions, market share growth, and market maker recruitment.
Contents
How Binance.US Plans to Enter the Prediction Market: DCM License and Revival Plans
A DCM license grants the right to trade futures, options, and event contracts under federal regulation. Applicants must meet 23 core CFTC principles, including:
- system safeguards,
- record-keeping,
- conflict of interest management.
As of publication, the CFTC register shows no Binance.US filing. But the company intends to file in August. The application comes a year after the SEC dropped its case against Binance, its US arm, and former CEO Changpeng Zhao, which included allegations of customer fund misuse.
Binance.US’s entry would intensify competition in a fast-growing segment. In June 2026, weekly prediction market volume hit $10.8 billion. Over the year, combined Kalshi and Polymarket turnover grew from $2 billion to $48.4 billion. Kalshi’s June volume exceeded $31 billion, while Polymarket’s international platform hit a monthly record of $10.8 billion.
Read more: Top 5 Prediction Markets Compared — Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold
Competition and Regulatory Risks: Kalshi, Polymarket, and State Battles
Kalshi and Polymarket remain the largest players. Other exchanges are already entering: Gemini secured a CFTC license in late 2025. Coinbase offers event contracts through Kalshi’s infrastructure. Last week, WSJ reported that Robinhood is in talks with Crypto.com to add prediction contracts.
The sector faces regulatory uncertainty. More than a dozen states are challenging platforms’ right to offer sports contracts, arguing they violate local gambling laws. The CFTC claims exclusive federal jurisdiction over event contracts. In July, a federal court temporarily blocked Minnesota’s prediction market ban, ruling that the CFTC likely has priority. The dispute is likely headed to the US Supreme Court.
Learn more: Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting — Key Differences
