We break down how prediction markets fared during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Here are the hottest numbers.
Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 in the World Cup final, triggering a storm on prediction markets. According to on-chain analyst defioasis.eth, roughly 130,000 of more than 194,000 crypto wallets on Polymarket posted losses–that’s 66.7% of participants.
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Despite that, trading volume on the tournament winner market hit $4.3B, beating the previous record set by the 2024 US presidential election. Profit distribution was highly uneven: only five accounts made more than $1M, while 114,000 addresses lost less than $100 each, averaging about $10.
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World Cup Final: Million-Dollar Bets and the ‘Drake Curse’
Spain beat Argentina in overtime. Pre-match odds on Polymarket gave Spain a 58% chance and Argentina 42%. Argentina’s biggest backer, trader gud.hl, lost his entire $1.23M deposit. He bought Argentina title contracts across 28 trades, paying more than $30,000 in fees. At one point, his unrealized profit topped $5M–but he didn’t close the position.
Canadian rapper Drake bet $1.5M USDT on Argentina to win in regulation time. To cash in, Argentina had to win within 90 minutes. The match went to extra time, and even an Argentina win wouldn’t have saved the bet. Fans call it the “Drake curse“–teams he backs often lose.
Read more: Top 5 Prediction Markets Compared — Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold
Draws Devastated Favorites Throughout the Tournament: $11.6M in Ten Days
The biggest World Cup losses came from draws. Trader coldsway lost $11.6M in ten days–only four of 15 bets paid out. His biggest loss: a $4.9M bet that Morocco wouldn’t win on July 4.
In June, account FlickRaw lost about $4.2M in under 24 hours. First, he bet $2.7M on the Netherlands to beat Japan–it ended 2-2. The next day, he put $1.5M on Belgium to beat Egypt–another draw.
User betoor619 bet nearly $1M on Spain to beat Cape Verde at 92% odds–risking it all for a potential $85,000 profit. A 0-0 draw wiped him out.
Read more: Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting — Key Differences
Who Made Money on the Tournament: $9M in a Single Day
The biggest wins came from contrarian bets against favorites. Wallet fishalive turned roughly $400,000 into nearly $9M on Spain’s Cape Verde match. He held “Spain will not win” contracts and a +2.5 spread on the African side. According to Lookonchain, another trader made $9.24M in a single day, correctly calling all four outcomes. His biggest position: $7.03M on Iran not beating New Zealand–it ended 2-2.
On the final, trader yamal19 bought about 3.3 million “yes” contracts on Spain at an average of 59.1 cents, spending $1.95M. After Spain’s win, net profit came to $1,349,881.
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Polymarket Records: $4.3B on a Single Event
The World Cup winner market drew $4.3B–the most for any single event in Polymarket history. The previous record was the 2024 presidential election at $3.6B.
In June, the platform’s trading volume hit $10.8B, also a record. For July so far, Polymarket has processed $5.8B, and Kalshi has handled $25.3B. According to Kalshi, the tournament brought 3 million new users to the platform.
Learn more: What Is Polymarket? The Beginner’s Guide to the Prediction Market Everyone Is Talking About in 2026
