Their winning percentage was 98%. Insider knowledge or luck?
Bubblemaps has identified a cluster of nine linked wallets on Polymarket that earned $2.4 million with a 98% winning rate on contracts related to US military actions in Iran.
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Details of the Polymarket Bets
The wallets placed large bets shortly before key events:
- The US attack on Iran on February 28
- The elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
- The signing of a temporary ceasefire
Four accounts earned approximately $400K each on the prediction of the February 28 strike on Iran.
All major wallets were created within a short time frame and funded through centralized exchanges. According to Bubblemaps, small losing bets placed on February 20 were likely used to reduce suspicion.
Suspicions of Insider Trading
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman noted that the accuracy of the bets and the funding structure look suspicious and point to a possible informational advantage. While there is no direct evidence of insider connections, the behavior of the wallets is “symptomatic of those who have an unfair advantage.”
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The funds were ultimately withdrawn to Bybit, Binance, and HTX▼$0.00000172, partially through third-party services.
Regulatory Reaction
The case has heightened concerns about insider trading on prediction markets. In March 2026, Senator Adam Schiff proposed the DEATH BETS Act, a bill banning contracts on war, terrorism, and assassinations. Earlier, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order restricting government employees from trading on such markets.
Polymarket and Kalshi remain in the crosshairs of regulators and the US Congress amid rising trading volumes and the political sensitivity of events.
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