The exchange’s new offering targets retail investors. Contracts are already available, with more platforms coming in the coming months. We break down what’s known about Cboe’s new product.
Cboe Global Markets has launched a product line called Cboe Predicts, aimed at the prediction market space. The first instrument is binary options on the mini S&P 500 index.
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Contracts are already available through Interactive Brokers, with Charles Schwab and other retail brokers set to offer them in the coming months.
Contents
How Cboe’s Prediction Options Work
Binary options let traders take a “yes” or “no” position on whether the S&P 500 Index will close above or below a set level. A correct prediction pays out $100.
The instruments trade under the tickers XSPBW and XSPBX, with clearing handled by the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC). Unlike decentralized platforms, Cboe’s contracts are fully listed options and are regulated under existing US options rules, providing institutional liquidity and transparency.
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Why Cboe Is Entering the Prediction Market: 0DTE Demand and Binary Contracts
Cboe Head of Retail Strategy JJ Kinahan tied the launch to high demand for zero-day-to-expiration options and client interest in simple, binary-outcome instruments. The XSP contracts are sized at one-tenth of the standard S&P 500 index, making them accessible to retail investors.
Cboe isn’t the only traditional finance firm moving into this space. Prediction markets are drawing increasing attention–trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi has already exceeded $130B this year.
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High Competition in the Prediction Market Space
Cboe is the latest major entrant into a segment dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi. The editorial team has previously reported that Meta is also developing a product for the space under the codename Arena.
Unlike Polymarket and Kalshi, which are under heavy regulatory scrutiny and face lawsuits from multiple states, Cboe positions its contracts as regulated options. That sidesteps the jurisdictional disputes over whether sports and political contracts should be controlled by the CFTC or state authorities.
Cboe emphasizes that its products comply with SEC standards and trade on traditional exchange infrastructure. That could give Cboe an edge in attracting institutional and retail investors who are wary of regulatory uncertainty.
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