Bitcoin price got a macro lift from weaker U.S. jobs data, but analysts say the rebound looks more like relief than a sustained recovery.
Weak U.S. jobs numbers helped Bitcoin get over the $63,000 level, but analysts view this development as nothing but a consolidation move rather than an upward momentum.
In its weekly market dashboard, crypto market maker Keyrock said BTC▲$62,630.00 soared to around $63,600 after June payrolls missed expectations and traders cut back bets on a September rate hike.
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The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, which is about 48% below the 110,000 expected by economists in a Reuters poll. For context, April and May were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs.
Therefore, the latest employment data partially reversed last week’s setup when Bitcoin and gold were selling off on the hot inflation data, according to the report. In this case, weak macroeconomic indicators provided reasons for cutting some of September rate-hike trades, they explained.
Bitcoin Price Rally Still Needs Confirmation
The key issue is that nothing much changed. According to Keyrock, long-term rates are near 5%, while about half of the September rate hike chance is left intact. Considering these circumstances, one may assume that the rally has more short-covering than a new wave of institutional investment:
“Thin holiday liquidity and ongoing ETF outflows argue the move has more short-covering than fresh institutional demand behind it.”
Volatility cooled across markets, with Keyrock saying Bitcoin 30-day implied volatility fell 17.5% to 37.7, Ethereum’s dropped around 14% to around 50.
In any case, the upcoming central bank meeting remains crucial. The experts revealed that a clearer picture would emerge only when the September rate hike probability decreases to less than 50% from July 28 Federal Reserve gathering since any sustainable rally of Bitcoin this year requires the optionality of rate cuts.
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