BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes now sees Bitcoin price reaching $125,000, down from his earlier $500,000 call.
BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes has lowered his Bitcoin price target to $125,000, stepping back from an earlier $500,000 forecast.
At Consensus 2026, Hayes didn’t clearly explain why he lowered the target, but said Bitcoin’s path still depends less on Washington crypto regulation and more on fiat liquidity, explaining that “Bitcoin is a combination of a tech stock which works and its liquidity.”
The change doesn’t appear to be the first time the BitMEX co-founder publicly moved toward $125,000. In April, Hayes had a much higher roadmap, with Bitcoin at $150,000 to $200,000 by summer, $250,000 to $500,000 by year-end and $1 million by 2028.
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AI Deflation Changes the Math
Hayes also said AI-driven job losses could create a deflationary shock first by cutting income, hurting consumption and pushing borrowers toward defaults. “It doesn’t take that many people to lose their jobs for this to be a problem,” he said.
What this means is that central banks will ultimately need to react with easy money. Prior to the time when this liquidity is made available on a large scale, the target of $500,000 would be more difficult to defend compared to $125,000, Hayes implied.
Hayes had stated earlier this month that Bitcoin reached its bottom at approximately $60,000 and that it’s well-placed to move towards the highest level ever.
In his Substack article on May 12, he noted that Bitcoin had hit its bottom earlier this year at $60,000 and that hitting $126,000 is “a foregone conclusion.”
Hayes’ thesis lies in the U.S. and China considering the AI spending a “national security contest,” meaning spending would increase in chips, data centers, and electric grids, as well as increasing the flow of fiat money through banking systems.
Read more: Bitcoin Price Could Reach $160K If BTC Catches Up to Stocks, VanEck Analyst Says
