Bitcoin bottom may still sit in the $45,000 to $55,000 range as ETF outflows, Strategy’s weaker buying role and AI stocks pull capital away.
Bitcoin’s drop below $60,000 may still not be ugly enough to mark the final low, as BitMEX Alpha, the research arm of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, says the bear market looks late by time but still too shallow by price.
In a July 3 note, BitMEX’s senior research analyst Shang Wu said earlier bear markets usually took about a year from peak to trough and ended only after drawdowns of 73% or more.
The ongoing cycle is about nine months old and roughly 50% off the high, which means the timing looks late-cycle. But the price damage still looks milder than usual as Wu noted that a 60% drawdown from the 2025 peak would put Bitcoin near $50,000, while a 65% drop would put it near $44,000.
Read also: Top July 2026 Crypto Updates: Crypto Market at a Breaking Point — Is Another Crash Coming?
ETF Outflows Keep Pressure On
But as Wu argues, the cycle also has different sellers. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned from a support into an exit door for traditional portfolios. Michael Saylor’s Strategy saying its mNAV falling near 1.0 also means the old equity-issuance flywheel is no longer working, Wu notes.
Hence, Wu claims Bitcoin “has lost one of its most reliable, price-insensitive marginal buyers.”
And additionally, Wu pointed out that AI is competing for the same risk capital that might otherwise rotate into Bitcoin, though he didn’t rule out that the low may already be in if ETF outflows reverse and Strategy stabilizes.
Read more: Glassnode Warns Bitcoin Bottom May Still Need Final Washout
