The turnover rate has doubled over the past two years, reaching an average of six turns per month.
Analysts at Standard Chartered note that this sharp acceleration in stablecoin velocity contradicts the bank’s previous forecasts. These trends could reduce the need for new token issuance even as transaction volumes grow.
Standard Chartered Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick noted that the acceleration occurred in recent months.
“Velocity has increased, which contradicts our assumption that it would remain stable,” he said.
According to Kendrick, if the trend continues, transaction growth will not require a proportional increase in stablecoin supply.
New Use Cases
Circle’s USDC▲$0.9998 drove the majority of the velocity increase. The metric began rising in mid-2024 across various blockchains, primarily Solana and Base. Analysts attribute this to a shift in stablecoin usage. They are increasingly deployed outside crypto trading and savings.
Emerging use cases include replacing traditional financial infrastructure and AI-based payments, including agentic payments on the x402 network, which Coinbase supports.
Meanwhile, Tether’s USDT▼$0.9993 maintains a low velocity. It still dominates savings-focused use cases in emerging markets, where transaction frequency remains low.
Standard Chartered emphasizes that the two market leaders have different strengths by use case: USDT for savings, USDC for replacing TradFi.
Bank’s Forecast Remains Unchanged
Despite the shifting dynamics, Standard Chartered maintains its baseline forecast. The bank estimates stablecoin supply will grow to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. At the time of the report’s publication, market capitalization stood at approximately $315.5 billion.
Market growth could create additional demand for US Treasury bills totaling about $1 trillion.
The bank notes that velocity now plays a role equal to total supply.
“If velocity remains constant, transaction growth will create demand for more stablecoins. If it increases, that won’t happen, all else being equal,” Kendrick explained.
The bank has not revised its forecast but emphasized that the metric warrants close monitoring.
