Bitcoin’s recovery above $62,000 doesn’t mean the selloff is over, with one analyst expecting Bitcoin bottom to arrive in Q4.
Benjamin Cowen, a macroeconomic analyst and founder of crypto research platform Into the Cryptoverse, said in a recent report that the current rally in Bitcoin’s price above the $60,000 level is nothing but a continuation of the bottoming process and not a new bullish cycle.
In his report, Cowen pointed out that the price of Bitcoin dipped below the 200-week simple moving average to $57,000 amid the summer decline but rose back to reach about $65,300. The 200-week simple moving average was hovering at about $63,100 at the time Cowen issued the report.
The analyst has long described the 200-week average as Bitcoin’s “date with destiny” because the cryptocurrency has historically approached it during the later stages of bear markets. But he said reclaiming it doesn’t confirm that the bottom is in:
“The reclaim is real but thin, and it is not treated as a resolution: the same sequence occurred in 2022 well before that cycle’s low was in.”
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What Bitcoin’s On-Chain Indicators Say
On-chain metrics further reveal that the reset of the market has yet to be completed.
Previous cycle bottoms also took Bitcoin below its so-called balanced price, another valuation model that currently sits near $37,700.
Cowen didn’t present either level as a precise price target. But he still argued that the recent decline hadn’t matched the deeper resets seen in previous bear markets.
Instead, his timing model points toward a prolonged reset. Bitcoin’s current cycle has already lasted longer than a 2019 comparison without producing the sudden capitulation that ended that decline. This might suggest that the market may complete the adjustment through time rather than another immediate crash, the analyst implies.
A weekly price rise above the 50-week moving average of $86,500 would cast doubt on his bearish prediction. Yet, Cowen advised to be patient, arguing that the bottom is “a matter of months rather than weeks away.”
Read more: Crypto Market Falls to Nearly Two-Year Low as Stablecoins Shrink
