Bitcoin price may still fall below realized value even though the cryptocurrency already looks undervalued, PlanB says.
Bitcoin price might go below realized value despite the fact that BTC▲$60,076.00 is currently undervalued, as the popular crypto analyst, PlanB, who authored the renowned Stock-to-Flow model, said in an X post on July 1.
According to the analyst, at the end of June, Bitcoin reached $58,526, below its 200-week moving average at roughly $62,000, yet above its realized price of $52,000.
Realized price is considered a measure of the approximate market-wide cost basis, as it measures the price at which coins were most recently traded. And as PlanB emphasized, “all previous bear market bottoms were below realized price.”
Yet, that doesn’t mean PlanB has abandoned his long-running bullish valuation view. After one user pushed back that he had previously called for $250,000 this cycle, PlanB said price and valuation should be treated separately:
“You are mixing up valuation and price. My view is that both are true, valuation (based on fundamentals like scarcity, S2F) is 250k-1m range, but price can differ. Right now price is much lower than value and indeed might go lower from here (below realized). So bitcoin is undervalued but can still go lower.”
Read also: Adam Back: Bitcoin Will Reach $500K-$1M by 2028 With No New Catalysts
Capitulation Risk Remains
When one other user noted that even history might be showing signs of a deeper capitulation phase, PlanB agreed, saying that another wave of “capitulation / liquidation” could come up “if history repeats itself.”
Asked when he turned bearish, PlanB said the warning signs started last December with “mixed signals” and were confirmed this February, when Bitcoin’s RSI, a momentum indicator used by traders, fell below the key 50 level.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju gave a broader version of the same problem. In an X post, he suggested that Bitcoin still has another parabolic cycle ahead. But but the market currently needs far more money to move.
For instance, it took only $5 million in net inflows to double BTC’s price in 2011, compared with roughly $101 billion in the current cycle, Ju wrote.
The CryptoQuant founder added that the next parabolic cycle “will likely require trillions” in net inflows, meaning Bitcoin needs deeper institutional adoption rather than another retail-led ETF trade.
Read more: Bitcoin Price Waits for New Catalyst as Momentum Cools, Analysts Say
