Bitcoin price bottom calls now range from about $43,000 to $59,000, but Bitwise says long-term investors should be looking at the cycle top.
Bitcoin‘s latest drawdown has turned the search for a market floor into a split call across some of crypto’s best-known research desks.
Still, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan says long-term investors should be looking at the cycle top instead.
In a June 15 blog post, Hougan said three crypto research teams recently reached different answers on whether Bitcoin has bottomed. Galaxy Digital said no, NYDIG said maybe, though probably not, while Standard Chartered said yes. Hougan noted:
“But if you’re looking for an easy answer to the question, I’ve got bad news for you: These three great research teams disagree.”
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Three Research Desks Split on Bitcoin’s Floor
Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital looked at Bitcoin’s 17-year trading history and found 13 conditions that have usually appeared near market bottoms, including valuation, Bitcoin miner stress, profit-taking, sentiment and cycle indicators.
Yet, only four of those conditions are fully met, according to Hougan’s summary. Galaxy Digital’s base case puts the Bitcoin price bottom around $40,000 to $46,000.
NYDIG, a Bitcoin-focused investment firm, was less bearish. Still, it’s not fully convinced that the low is already in.
As Hougan explained, NYDIG’s work found the pullback has “many of the characteristics of a cyclical low, but fewer signs of the outright capitulation that has historically accompanied major bitcoin bottoms.”
Banking giant, Standard Chartered, meanwhile, took completely different side. The bank said Bitcoin had already bottomed at $59,000 and now expects BTC▼$65,225.00 to reach $100,000 by year-end.
What Really Matters
But as Hougan argued, the split matters less than the shared view underneath it. All three research teams expect the bottom to come this year, believe BTC is closer to the bottom than the top and expect another bull cycle.
Bitcoin trades near $65,540 as of press time, per data from CoinGecko, below the roughly $67,000 level Hougan cited in the memo. Hougan added:
“If you’re a long-term investor, it doesn’t matter much if bitcoin bottoms at $40k, $50k, or $60k. What matters is whether it then trades to $100k, $200k, and $1 million. If it hits any of those, it’s a great return from here.”
His own answer is that the top isn’t in. Hougan pointed to government debt, inflation, weakening trust in centralized institutions, better Bitcoin access and BTC-native investors getting older and wealthier.
There are risks, including quantum computing and tougher regulation. But Hougan said the setup “feels better than it did during any other crypto winter.”
Read more: Bitcoin Price Risks Pullback as Institutions Hold Back, Analysts Warn
