Trading volume on prediction market platforms could reach $1 trillion by 2030, according to Bernstein analysts.
In 2026, the sector’s turnover is estimated to grow to $240 billion—nearly four times the $51 billion recorded for 2025.
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Experts cite federal regulatory clarity, blockchain tokenization, and crypto integration as the main growth drivers. Crypto integration provides global liquidity and attracts institutional investors.
Recent Context
Prediction markets have been actively developing since 2024, especially after the US presidential election. In 2025, trading volumes tripled to $51 billion.
Sector leaders Polymarket and Kalshi have already surpassed $60 billion in early 2026.
Sports currently account for about 61% of turnover. However, analysts expect interest to gradually shift toward crypto assets, macroeconomics, and political events.
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Growth Structure and Outlook
Bernstein forecasts that the share of sports contracts will decline to roughly 31% by 2030. Institutional and corporate contracts for risk hedging will drive most of the growth.
Analysts also expect the sector’s annual revenue to rise from $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026 and to $10.8 billion by 2030. Robinhood and Coinbase are seen as key distribution channels. Robinhood already generates approximately $350 million in ARR through its Kalshi integration.
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