Prediction markets hold the lowest chance yet that the CLARITY Act will pass into United States law this year, and some seem to be losing hope that Congress will pass crypto regulation at all.
Even Kalshi, the betting market that allows betting on bill passage between now and the end of the current legislative session, gives only a 20% chance to the bill, despite optimism in the aftermath of its 2025 House passage.
The measure ultimately stalled in the Senate due to contention on a variety of subject matters such as yield limits on stablecoins, anti-money laundering, and ethics rules for public officials.
These disagreements have delayed negotiations and steadily weakened expectations that the legislation can gain sufficient momentum before lawmakers leave Washington for the August recess.
Things took another turn for the worse when Senate Majority Leader John Thune failed to file cloture, a procedural move that would enable Senate action on a motion to end debate and permit a vote on the Senate floor, leading some to believe that there was simply not enough political will to achieve the desired 60 votes in support of the bill.
With only a handful of legislative days before the Senate is due to recess, many market participants believe the chances of a near-term passage have waned.
However, following the House vote, many crypto investors soured on the legislation as they had seen the CLARITY Act as one of the biggest legislative victories for crypto.
The optimism hasn’t been borne out, as negotiations have been rocky on stablecoin-specific provisions and have stalled due to broader political disputes.
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The passing of the legislation has drawn a backlash within the crypto community, as reflected in social media, with many expressing disillusionment at the initial optimism that had greeted the legislation proposal.
Among participants, some believe the delays signal a lack of political will, while others say Washington has lost its momentum on digital asset regulation.
There has also been skepticism of the law on Reddit, where multiple comments have stated that it does not have sufficient bipartisanship to pass, as some have said that its sponsors do not even have enough votes in the Republican caucus.
Some, however, saw the proposal as a way for Congress to distract from the problem, and felt that chances of it being enacted were slim.
Read More: Is the Crypto Bull Market at Risk? Why the Clarity Act Just Hit a Wall
While the legislative viability of this proposal remains bleak, the biggest roadblock to passage continues to be disagreements over ethics provisions on cryptocurrency ownership among individuals in top positions of the executive branch. Senate Democrats have indicated they would need stronger precautions on the digital asset holdings of President Donald Trump and senior-level officials.
Until those issues are resolved, analysts say the CLARITY Act will remain one of the crypto industry’s most closely watched and most uncertain pieces of legislation.
