Kalshi and Polymarket Volume Surges 75% to $44.8B in June — FIFA World Cup Drove $832M in Bets

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has sparked a fresh wave of excitement on prediction markets. We break down what’s happening on the platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.

Combined monthly trading volume on prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US reached $44.8B in June–a 75% increase from May’s $25.66B.

Hot topic: Bitcoin Has Another Parabolic Cycle Ahead — But 10x Growth Only Happens Under One Condition, Says CryptoQuant

The main driver was the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which kicked off on June 11 and runs through July 19. The tournament brought millions of dollars in bets to the platforms. Kalshi’s market on the World Cup winner alone collected more than $832M, with roughly 35% of participants betting on France.

Kalshi Outpaced Polymarket in Growth: +87.4% to $31.5B

Kalshi showed the largest monthly increase–trading volume rose 87.4% to $31.5B, up from $16.81B in May. Polymarket’s non-US platform attracted $10.26B, up 45% from May. Polymarket US, the regulated American version, also posted steady growth, rising to $3.04B from $1.77B in May.

Notably, Polymarket had been steadily losing volume from March through May, while its US-regulated platform grew throughout that period. That suggests demand for prediction markets remains strong but is partly shifting toward regulated structures.

Read more: Top 5 Prediction Markets Compared — Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold

World Cup as the Main Driver: Up to $2M Per Match

The volume surge is almost entirely explained by World Cup hype. On Polymarket, contracts for individual matches are drawing $500K to $2M in volume each. The mechanics are simple: users buy a share in an event’s outcome–if their prediction is correct, they get a payout; if not, they lose their stake.

Still, prediction markets face legal pressure in the US. More than a dozen state authorities have sued Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of offering unlicensed sports betting. The platforms, along with the CFTC, argue that federal regulation allows them to offer sports markets with priority over state jurisdiction. The legal battles could reach the Supreme Court.

Learn more: Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting — Key Differences