Bitcoin continued rising after an initial recovery from a local minimum of $62,200, subsequently crossing above $64,000 after reports emerged that the US, Iran, and Oman were making real progress in finding a solution regarding the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
This increased speculation that a thaw in geopolitical tensions could be a short-term benefit for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
According to a follow-up report by Axios, officials said the three delegations were close to signing an interim agreement to resume normal traffic on the waterway, and that US President Donald Trump wanted that announcement to be made later today. There has been no announcement as of yet.
The reported gains came after weekend comments by Trump where he said that the military action against Iran had been called off and negotiations were under way. Iranian officials rejected the comments, and market participants were waiting for more news from both sides.
Moreover, citing regional sources familiar with the active negotiations, Axios reported that under the proposed agreement, incoming vessels would have to navigate through the northern shipping lane controlled by Iran while the outgoing traffic would transits the southern route in Omani waters.
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The provisional framework also involves waiving charges for the transit in both directions for the first 60 days. It was initially reported that Iran demanded $2 million per ship, with Bitcoin as a possible payment option.
Additionally, the project would include clearing naval mines from the central lane of the strait and the possibility of two-way traffic in the corridor, as part of a long-term arrangement between Oman and Iran regarding passage through the strait.
Bitcoin is up over $2,000 since it tested $62,200. As traders parse geopolitical headlines, any rally will need a permanent, diplomatic resolution that investors are willing to accept as a proper breakout, analysts said.
Outside of these daily headlines, on-chain fundamentals continue to support Bitcoin through exchange balances remaining relatively low, a high degree of long-term holder concentration, and Bitcoin’s historical trend of recovering from uncertainty.
At the same time, multiple factors are serving to limit bullish sentiment, including security issues related to Coldcards, the potential for more sales from Strategy, and higher bond yields and the US dollar.
The United States and Japan have both recently intervened in the currency market, showing the impact of Asian finance markets on cryptocurrency pricing.
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The next US inflation and employment data could affect expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. Investors are also watching US crypto regulation such as the CLARITY Act, as well as developments in international diplomacy and their potential impact on oil prices.
Market participants cited on X expect this de-escalation between Washington and Tehran to have a positive impact on energy prices, exert deflationary pressure, and lead Bitcoin to test its resistance zone of $65,000-$68,000.
The $62,000 support area could be at risk from fresh geopolitical escalation or a more hawkish monetary signal.
